The 2035 gap: pledged cuts versus what the science requires

Name: The 2035 gap: pledged cuts versus what the science requires
Creator: UNFCCC NDC synthesis report update (Nov 2025); IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report, Table SPM.1

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Dataset

The 2035 gap: pledged cuts versus what the science requires

Change in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 relative to 2019: what the new NDCs add up to, against the IPCC benchmarks for 2°C and 1.5°C.

12%projected cut by 2035 from all new NDCs, against 60% needed for 1.5°C

Needed for 1.5°C (IPCC AR6)60%

Needed for 2°C (IPCC AR6)35%

All new NDCs (UNFCCC, Nov 2025)12%

Source: UNFCCC NDC synthesis report update (Nov 2025); IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report, Table SPM.1 · November 2025; IPCC 2023 · Unit: %

Source: UNFCCC NDC synthesis report update (Nov 2025); IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report, Table SPM.1
Edition: November 2025; IPCC 2023
Unit: %
Last updated on this site: 4 Oct 2026

Method note

Reductions below 2019 levels. "All new NDCs" is the UNFCCC central estimate including LULUCF (range 7–18%) for 113 Parties’ new NDCs plus earlier NDCs for the rest. IPCC values are medians for pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot, and to 2°C (>67%).

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Pathway	Cut in global GHG by 2035 vs 2019 (%)
All new NDCs (UNFCCC, Nov 2025)	12
Needed for 2°C (IPCC AR6)	35
Needed for 1.5°C (IPCC AR6)	60